KIRKLAND, Washington (January 6, 2020) – “The buyers are out there and are showing up at open houses and making multiple offers on new listings,” was how one industry leader summarized December’s housing activity involving members of the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

Frank Wilson, Kitsap regional manager and branch managing broker at John L. Scott Real Estate in Poulsbo, also said the severe shortage of inventory – “much lower than in years past” – will lead to continued buyer frustration and escalating home values. He noted one of his colleagues added a new listing the day after Christmas and it quickly drew 11 offers.

Newly-released figures from Northwest MLS show inventory at the end of December was down 31% from the same month a year ago, with only 8,469 active listings compared to the year-ago total of 12,275. The figures include single family homes and condominiums across the 23 counties in the MLS service area.

Last month marked the sixth straight month of declining inventory, noted James Young, director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research. MLS figures show inventory peaked in June when the database had 16,680 active listings ? about twice as many as December.

Inventory for single family homes and condos (combined) was down by more than 30% in seven counties: Thurston (-54%), Pierce (-38.9%), King (-38.8%), Snohomish (-35.6%), Mason (-32%), Kitsap (-30.6%), and Skagit (-30.5%).  System-wide there is only about 1.2 months of supply.

The inventory of single family homes (excluding condos) is especially tight in several counties, notably Thurston (-54%), King (-41.4%), Pierce (-40%), Snohomish (-36.1%), and Kitsap (-34.3%).

Robb Wasser, branch manager at Windermere Real Estate/East and NWMLS director, noted the sharp drop in King County marked the first time since March 2018 that the supply of homes dropped below one month. “Looking all the way back to 2012 when home values first began recovering, King County has only logged six months with supply levels lower than where we currently stand,” he remarked.

“This market is unlike any market I’ve seen in the South Sound over the past 40 years. Too many buyers chasing too few properties,” remarked Dick Beeson, principal managing broker at RE/MAX Northwest in Gig Harbor.

December’s volume of active listings included 3,777 new listings added during the month, but during the same timeframe, 5,943 sellers accepted offers on their properties. That number of pending sales was up about 4.7% from twelve months ago.

Brokers said December is typically a slow month for home sales with holidays and historically cold, wet weather, but several MLS representatives commented on last month’s surge in activity:

• “December 2019 proved to be better in just about every single category than December of 2018 – this notwithstanding weather that was not as mild as 2018, and weather typically has an impact on sales.”-Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain.
• “Historically low interest rates and strong job growth continue to drive the Puget Sound housing market, which is already sizzling as we begin the new decade. In the more affordable and mid-price ranges, many areas are seeing frenzied sales activity with multiple offers on most properties.”-J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate.
• “Home sales continued to be strong through December, fueled by low interest rates and new job creation. Hot spot locations continue to experience multiple offers on properly priced inventory.”-Dean Rebhuhn, owner of Village Homes and Properties in Woodinville.
• “December was one of the most active in recent years with an unusual number of ready, willing, and able buyers in the Seattle market. These buyers were competing for little inventory as the year ended.”-John Deely, principal managing broker, Coldwell Banker Bain.
• “December was a bit of an anomaly in the King County real estate market. Although appreciation has slowed considerably from the 14% or so annual appreciation increases that we experienced during the market frenzy years, inventory continues to get tighter. We experienced very high demand for housing.” – Gary O’Leyar, designated broker/owner, Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Signature Properties in Seattle.

Northwest MLS member-brokers recorded 7,093 completed transactions during December, a gain of more than 11% from the 6,374 closed sales of the same month a year ago. Prices on last month’s closed sales of single family homes and condos rose 8.75% from a year ago. For the MLS market overall the price was $435,000 versus the year-ago figure of $400,000.

For the four-county Puget Sound region (encompassing King, Kitsap, Pierce and Snohomish counties), the median sales price for December’s closed sales was $495,000, up 10% from the year-ago figure of $449,950.

In King County, which had the highest volume of sales and the highest prices, the median sales price for last month’s closed sales was $615,000. That was an increase of about 3% from a year ago. Prices in King County peaked in May at $645,000.

Deely, a member of the NWMLS board of directors, reported “unusually brisk activity” in the luxury market as the year wound down, with several multimillion-dollar sales coming in all cash with less than two-week closings. Another noticeable trend he cited was foreign buyers and sellers anxious to complete buy-sell transactions before year end. “If this is any indication of the 2020 market, then we will be moving more towards the blistering market of 2017, swinging away from the more balanced market of 2019,” he proclaimed.

Some brokers expect the pressure on prices to ease during the first quarter of the year as inventory improves.

“We will see increased new inventory in the 1st quarter of 2020 resulting in a better selection of homes,” declared Rebhuhn, who added, “Buyers should be ready to supply sellers with prequalification letters including satisfaction of major underwriting elements.”

Scott said some relief should be on the way as the weather warms up and sellers choose to put their home on the market, but he also cautioned it’s possible the trend of fewer resale listings than usual will continue on the Eastside. He described the Eastside housing market as “particularly hot,” adding, “It shows no sign of slowing down anytime soon with recent job growth announcements and an extreme shortage of unsold inventory priced up to $1 million.”

Brokers in several counties outside of King County also commented on inventory shortages and the velocity of sales.

Frank Leach, broker/owner at RE/MAX Platinum Services in Silverdale, said Kitsap, Mason, Pierce and Jefferson counties continue to have constrained inventory, and “the market remains very competitive in all price categories.” NWMLS figures show December’s inventory in those four counties declined more than 35% from the selection of a year ago, while prices jumped 10.4%. Collectively, there is less than a month’s supply (0.94 months) in these South Sound counties.

Leach also noted rentals are very tight with new apartments rented as soon as they are finished. Builders are “chasing the market with most of their inventory being sold before they are finished,” added Leach, a member of the Northwest MLS board of directors.  

Wilson, whose office is also in Kitsap County, said more and more of their buyers do not work in Kitsap, adding areas connected to the ferry system are seeing more and more commuters purchase homes “because we are still more affordable than King County with a much higher quality of life.” He also said, “The unheard story out there is the one of many sellers who would like to sell their home but cannot find a home to buy in Kitsap.”

Young said December’s double-digit price increases in several counties reflect the long-term trend of increased interest along the I-5 corridor.

Looking ahead, brokers expect brisk activity.

Grady said, “With inventory below one month in King County, we can only surmise that 2020 will show a return to rising home prices as a result of the lack of inventory and continued robust job market. While buyers will continue to benefit from low interest rates, there are simply not enough homes for sale. These predictors indicate that the first quarter of 2020 will be active.”

Beeson, also a member of the NWMLS board of directors, underscored the fact that new construction falls further behind the need each year. “We continuously see multiple offer situations in the median or lower prices ranges. Price creep in Pierce County continues to be above 8% year-over-year for the past three years.”

“Clients often ask for our ‘crystal ball’ projection regarding the direction the real estate market is heading,” stated O’Leyar. He tells them “Follow the employment numbers,” citing State Employment Security Department reports showing the unemployment rate in King County for November 2019 was 2.3%, the lowest rate for any month measured since January 2016 and the highest employment rate since November 2017.

“The only sound reason for waiting to buy real estate in the Greater Seattle market now would be finding the suitable home versus anticipating the market to get any less challenging for buyers in the near future,” O’Leyar remarked.

KIRKLAND, Washington (December 5, 2019) – Brokers with Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported “plenty of buyers” competing for sparse inventory during November, which ended with a 7% year-over-year increase in pending sales. The volume of mutually accepted offers rose even more (9.2%)  in the tri-county Puget Sound region consisting of King, Pierce and Snohomish counties, with Snohomish leading that list with a jump of about 12%.

Median sales prices also jumped compared to both a year ago and to October. For November’s 7,216 closed sales (which were up 5.5% from a year ago), the area-wide sales price was $434,900, a gain of about 10% from the same month a year ago. Compared to October, last month’s price on sales of single family homes and condos (combined) jumped 3.5%.

King County’s median price of $612,000 led all other counties, but prices there edged up just over a percentage point compared to a year ago.

“Just when I thought we had started a ‘new normal’ that equalized things a bit for buyers, we’ve had a ‘November Surprise,'” said Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain. “Perhaps it’s an aberration, but perhaps not,” he suggested.

November’s 7% increase in pending sales was the highest year-over-year gain for November since 2016. In 2017, the YOY figure was a modest 1.6%, while last year’s comparison showed a drop of more than 10%

Brokers could not replenish inventory to keep pace with demand.

“New listings added to inventory retreated nearly 15%,” Grady noted. MLS members added 5,437 new listings system-wide, far fewer than a year ago when they added 6,399 residential properties to the MLS market area that covers 23 counties. The imbalance between new listings and pending sales resulted in supply falling to 1.58 months, the lowest system-wide level since last December.

“Pending sales, along with other indices I watch, including the number of surrendered out-of-state driver’s licenses, construction crane activity, and the 11 million square feet of office space under construction that is already 90% leased, bolsters the idea we may be seeing our region’s economy strengthening – and we weren’t in a lull,” proclaimed Grady.

Northwest MLS director John Deely also commented on last month’s pace of activity. “Motivated buyers jumped into the market to capitalize on motivated sellers with both groups looking to complete their real estate goals by year’s end,” he reported. “The upper end market saw an influx of cash buyers looking to grab trophy properties, notably buyers and investors from California looking to diversify their real estate holdings,” added Deely, principal managing broker at Coldwell Banker Bain’s Lake Union Office in Seattle.

Brokers reported 11,366 total active listings at month end, down more than 28 percent from twelve months ago when there were 15,830 active listings. November’s selection was down about 21 percent from October.

“The housing market is virtually sold out in the more affordable and mid-price ranges where 75 percent of sales activity occurs in each market area,” remarked J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate. With December typically marking a low point for new listings coming on the market, and the lower level of unsold inventory, Scott said “the pressure is on despite the winter chill.” This pressure is sending prices higher in the more affordable and mid-price ranges, according to Scott, who does not expect any easing until spring when new listings begin to increase.

James Young, director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research, commented on price rebounds in Pierce County. “Some parts of this county only recently reached price levels higher than 2007. Now they are rapidly catching up with other areas. It continues to be one of the hottest markets in the U.S.”

“While much of the U.S. has seen declines in pending sales, not so in Puget Sound,” declared Dick Beeson, a member of the Northwest MLS board of directors. He points to the year-over-year gain in pending sales in the tri-county area (up more than 9%) and the sharp drop in active listings (down more than 34%), describing it as a perfect storm. “Sellers won’t come on the market because they think they can get more in the future or they have nowhere to go, and buyers, who have tried to avoid bidding wars, often mistakenly think they can sit back and pick and choose, looking for bargains.”

Beeson, the principal managing broker at RE/MAX Northwest in Gig Harbor, said the news for buyers is, if there’s a bargain out there, others will find it too, and they’ll be competing once again. He said some sellers also have unrealistic expectations if they think they need not do improvements before selling. “The news to sellers is buyers are looking for move-in-ready homes. They don’t want to ‘fix it up’ after they move in.”

Commenting on strong activity in Kitsap and Mason counties, Young said it represents a trend toward value and expansion of the “Puget Sound Economic Zone,” rather than a focus solely on Seattle. He also suggested in-migration of people who are cashing out of expensive markets to retire is also at play in these two counties plus Clallam County. “In these relatively good value markets, people trading down are beating out first-time buyers.”

November’s listing and sales numbers continue to illustrate that buyers are driving to affordability for their home purchases, according to Dean Rebhuhn, owner of Village Homes and Properties in Woodinville. “Buyers are going north, south and east to find homes that fit their budgets and lifestyles,” he remarked.

Rebhuhn said in addition to strong sales activity in Snohomish and Pierce counties, Kittitas County continues to experience strong home sales. Pending sales jumped nearly 17% from a year ago as buyers sought affordable prices. Last month’s closed sales in Kittitas County had a median price of $335,000, about 55% of the price in King County ($612,000).

Buyers can also find good values to the west, in Kitsap County, reported Frank Leach, broker/owner at RE/MAX Platinum Services in Silverdale and a Northwest MLS director. Like elsewhere, inventory in Kitsap County is tight, with active listings down nearly 29% from a year ago. Both pending sales and closed sales rose slightly, while median prices for single family homes and condos (combined) surged more than 15%, from $330,000 to $380,916.

“Overall, real estate sales remain strong and robust in Kitsap County, with well-priced inventory selling in less than seven days in the price ranges of $350,000 or less,” remarked Leach. “Very favorable interest rates are inspiring renters and first-time homebuyers to enter the marketplace during the winter months, thus buoying sales,” he added. He also noted permits for new single family homes, apartments, and townhomes are on the rise countywide, while condo activity is dormant.

Leach said the military continues to have a strong and growing presence in Kitsap County, which he described as “a great place to grow a family or retire.” Another expected boost to its economy and real estate segment will be the early 2020 opening of Harrison Hospital in Silverdale, and its 2,000 employees.

The latest NWMLS report shows considerable variation in activity among counties and sub-markets. Twelve of the 23 counties in the report had year-over-year drops in the volume of closed sales, but only three counties reported declines in median sales prices. Price changes ranged from a drop of nearly 8% in Pacific County to a gain of 17.4% in Clallam County.

Similarly, the condo segment, accounting for about 13 percent of last month’s activity, had mixed results. Inventory remained tight, with 19.8 fewer new listings added during November than the same month a year ago. The number of total active listings slipped more than 23% compared to a year ago.

Both pending sales and closed sales of condos improved on a year ago. Last month, MLS members reported 1,027 pending sales for a gain of nearly 8.8% from a year ago. Closed sales increased 8.3%, from 806 transactions to 873. Prices were up nearly 4.5%, rising from $335,000 a year ago to $350,000 for November’s completed transactions.

NWMLS brokers tended to shrug off this year’s seasonal slowdown, while cautioning procrastinators.

“As we head into the winter months we’re seeing the normal tapering off of demand, but there are still plenty of buyers in the market so I don’t expect things to slow down too much,” remarked OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate. “Looking forward, home prices will likely end the year higher than last year, but not by much. Price growth should pick up some steam again in 2020 thanks to low interest rates and continued demand for homes,” he added.

If mortgage rates stay below 4%, while prices rise and inventory remains tight, Grady says “We could see a real estate market in 2020 that is even stronger than 2019 with homes prices increasing again, perhaps even 7% or more.”  That’s good news for sellers, he stated, adding, “Buyers should think about taking advantage of these record-setting low interest rates now.”

Leach agrees. “Now is the time to buy or refinance while interest rates remain at all-time lows. Well valued and priced inventory will sell rapidly across the holidays and into the winter season.”

“How can buyers not take advantage of the lowest interest rate environment in decades?” wondered Dick Beeson, adding, “The psychological highs and lows surrounding buying or selling a home today are tremendous. Both buyers and sellers need solid advice from a professional who can filter the noise and help them make intelligent, informed decisions.”

KIRKLAND, Washington (November 7, 2019) – “People are moving here, home prices will continue to increase, inventory shortages will occur. That’s our future,” remarked Dick Beeson, principal managing broker at RE/MAX Northwest in Gig Harbor, upon viewing the October statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

Active listings of homes and condos totaled 14,379, the lowest level since April. Compared to a year ago, last month’s selection declined more than 21% and was down 10% from September, according to the new report from Northwest MLS. The year-over-year and month-to-month volume of new listings also declined last month. On a positive note, MLS figures show system-wide gains in October’s pending sales (up nearly 5.6%), closed sales (up 4.1%) and prices (up nearly 7.7%) compared to a year ago.

Beeson, a member of the Northwest MLS board of directors, and other MLS leaders also commented on inventory shortages, which some refer to as the “new normal.” The sustained, lower levels of supply “drive some buyers crazy as they keep expecting to gain the upper hand,” Beeson reported, adding, “It’s not going to happen any time soon. The market has settled into a circadian rhythm of sorts.”

MLS figures for its 23-county service area show 1.73 months of supply overall. Ten counties, mostly in the Puget Sound area, have less than two months of supply of single family homes and condominiums, whereas 4-to-6 months is a level industry-watchers use as a gauge of a balanced market.

“With only 1.63 months of supply of single family homes (excluding condos), King County’s available listing inventory is notably below the national average of four months, as reported by the National Association of Realtors,” stated Gary O’Leyar, designated broker/owner of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Signature Properties in Seattle. The MLS report shows inventory as measured by months of supply was below King County’s figure in six counties.

Condo inventory is only slightly better, at just over two months of inventory, although that could improve with several highrise projects in Seattle and Bellevue in the pipeline. “We are still amid a very robust real estate market,” O’Leyar proclaimed.

Northwest MLS records show the last time the supply of homes and condos exceeded three months was February 2015, when there was just over 3.5 months of supply.

Compared to the same month a year ago, October’s supply of active listings declined by double-digits in 18 of the 23 counties in the NWMLS report. Thurston County had the sharpest decline (down 35.5%), followed by Pierce (down 28.7%) and Kitsap (down nearly 27%).

Despite the slim selection, demand was strong as the volume of pending sales (9,517) outgained the number of new listings added during October (8,394). Nine counties reported double-digit jumps in pending sales compared to 12 months ago.

“The most recent data certainly appears to bolster the idea of a ‘new normal,’ as we see the same trends continuing,” stated Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain. “Inventory is staying between 1.7 and 2.3 months and median sales prices are stabilizing” in many areas, he noted, adding, “Couple this with continuing positive economic news locally — including a positive forecast for job creation, interest rates at all-time lows, and several new condo projects in the pipeline (instead of apartments) given the legislature’s change this year in the construction defects laws – all these point to a new definition of a ‘balanced market’ of only two months of inventory instead of 4-to-6 months.”

OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate, also commented on the meager supply. “‘Tis the season for the number of homes for sale to start dropping, and we don’t expect to see a significant influx of new inventory until spring. That said, there are still plenty of buyers out there, so this drop in listings will lead to increased competition and will likely cause home price growth to increase modestly through the end of the year.”

Dean Rebhuhn, owner of Village Homes and Properties in Woodinville, said market hot spots are drawing multiple offers, fueled by the combination of moderating (or lowered) prices and strong job creation. He also noted first-time home buyers are taking advantage of many low down payment loan programs, such as state bonds, HomeReady mortgages by Fannie Mae, and other assistance from FHA, VA, and USDA (US Department of Agriculture). “More flexible underwriting guidelines are also allowing first-time home buyers a better opportunity to buy,” according to Rebhuhn.

Another company leader expects strong price hikes. “As we enter the last two months of the year, we see a pressure cooker developing in the more affordable and mid-price ranges, and we predict strong price appreciation in 2020,” stated J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate.

With the transition to the winter market, Scott anticipates a “clean-up” of unsold inventory when listings expire and some sellers take their homes off the market over the holidays, with plans to reposition them in the spring. “Each year during the November through February time period, we see the fewest new listings come on the market, resulting in the lowest point of unsold listings occurring after the first of the year,” he explained.

With the backdrop of “extremely strong job growth and interest rates in the threes,” Scott says the extra backlog of buyers will enter the market after the holidays, but new listings won’t show up in larger numbers until March. “Therefore, we predict healthy price appreciation after the first of the year.”

A similar scenario exists in Kitsap County where YOY inventory is down nearly 27%, and broker Frank Wilson believes “come January there will be even fewer homes on the market.” Both pending and closed sales are up in Kitsap County compared to last year, prompting Wilson, the branch managing broker and regional manager at John L. Scott Real Estate in Poulsbo, to suggest, “An end to the housing shortage is nowhere in sight.”

With fewer homes on the market and rising sales prices (up 12.6%) in Kitsap County, but a seasonal shrinkage of buyers, Wilson says sellers are asking if it’s a good time to put their home on the market. “The answer would be yes,” he stated, adding, “There are fewer active listings competing for your home, and active buyers at this time of year are serious.” 

Wilson also cited strong traffic at open houses for new listings, multiple offers, and homes selling at list price with few or no seller concessions as further indicators of today’s market. Cash and conventional financing are the leading methods of purchase, he noted.

Northwest MLS figures show sales prices continue to be wide ranging, not only when comparing counties in the report, but also within many counties.

In King County, for example, the median price on last month’s 2,757 completed transactions was $605,000, down about 1.4% from a year ago – one of only two counties where YOY prices slipped. (Clark County reported a drop of 2.75%.) Within King County, where Northwest MLS tracks 30 sub-areas, median sales prices ranged from $371,000 (in Des Moines/Redondo Beach) to $1,892,500 (in Bellevue west of I-405).

Year-over-year price changes ranged from a drop of nearly 20% (in Vashon) to a jump of more than 21% (in Bellevue west of I-405).

Beeson said the South Sound market is experiencing sticker shock, citing an analysis published earlier this year by Redfin showing Tacoma outgained other metro areas across the nation with the fastest percentage of home equity increases since 2012. That surge may be moderating, as prices from a year ago are up more than 8.7%. Based on October figures, the median price is Pierce County, at $360,000, is more affordable than any of the nearby counties of Kitsap ($385,000), Snohomish ($475,000), and King ($605,000).

Northwest MLS members tallied 8,335 closed sales last month, improving on both the previous month (up 4.7%) and same month a year ago (up 4.1%). Through 10 months, closed sales are lagging 2018 totals by 1,140 units (-1.4%).

The area-wide median price on October’s completed transactions was $420,000, matching September and surpassing the year-ago price by nearly 7.7%.

KIRKLAND, Washington (October 7, 2019) – Northwest Multiple Listing Service brokers reported year-over-year gains in pending sales, closed sales and prices, but its report summarizing September activity also showed an 18% drop in inventory compared to a year ago.

“The transition into the fall housing market creates opportunities for homebuyers,” suggested J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate. “Although there are fewer listings than what buyers find during peak summer months, there is also less competition” for the available inventory, he added.

While the intensity of sales activity is typically lower for new listings in the fall and winter, Scott noted “It appears we are headed toward a more intense winter market than last year.” He said he expects the number of unsold listings will continue to decrease once the winter “clean-up” of inventory begins.

At the end of September, MLS brokers reported 15,982 total active listings, down more than 18% from the same month a year ago when the selection totaled 19,526 listings. Only three of the 23 counties served by Northwest MLS – Clark, San Juan and Whatcom – had year-over-year gains in inventory, while 18 counties had double-digit drops. Thurston County reported the sharpest shrinkage, at nearly 35%.

“September’s housing market was a bit of a roller coaster, up in certain areas and down in others,” commented OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate.. Within the four-county Puget Sound region, Pierce County prices rose more than 10% thanks to high demand and low inventory, he noted. “Buyers continue to be drawn to the area thanks to more affordable housing costs, but this influx is also driving up prices,” he remarked.

MLS data show the median price for last month’s home sales in Pierce County ($379,950) was $213,800 less than the median price in King County ($593,750). A comparison of single family prices (excluding condos) reveals a $275,500 difference between the two counties.

“In King County, prices were down nearly 2.7% while pending sales rose nearly 10%. This tells us there is no shortage of buyers in the Greater Seattle area,” stated Jacobi. He also said home prices normally start to taper off this time of year, “so this isn’t a major cause for concern.” Within King County, prices rose in four of the six sub-markets; only Seattle (down 3.2%) and Vashon (down almost 28%) reported drops.

The median price for single family homes and condos that sold last month in King County was $593,750, down from the year-ago figure of $610,000 and the first time it dipped below $600,000 since January. Three other counties, Okanogan, Pacific, and Clallam, also reported year-over-year price drops. Joining Pierce County with double-digit price increases from a year ago were eight other counties.

System-wide, prices were up 5%, rising from $400,000 a year ago to $420,000. The volume of closed sales increased about 4.4% from a year ago (7,962 versus 7,630).

“Home prices have stabilized, creating good opportunities for purchasers,” said Dean Rebhuhn, the owner of Village Homes and Properties in Woodinville. He expects prices to stay stable through the fall and winter markets.

“Continuing to drive the market are new jobs, lifestyle changes, and very low interest rates,” Rebhuhn remarked, adding, “FHA mortgages with 3.5% down payments are very popular with first-time homebuyers.”

The latest report from Northwest MLS shows pending sales were up about 9.8% from a year ago, with mutually accepted offers rising from 8,913 to 9,785. In the four-county Puget Sound region, Snohomish reported the largest gain at 18.3%, followed by Kitsap at nearly 11.9%, King at 9.8%, and Pierce at 5.4%.

Brokers were unable to replenish inventory to match demand as the volume of pending sales (9,785) outpaced new listings (9,435).

“Things were a bit different in September, but at this point it’s difficult to know if it’s an aberration or an actual trend,” stated Coldwell Banker Bain president and COO Mike Grady, pointing to “far fewer” new listings that were added last month compared to a year ago. Area-wide, Northwest MLS brokers added 9,435 new listings last month, a decline of 1,023 from the year-ago total (down nearly 9.8%).

“It’s still a seller’s market, and for more than a year we’ve seen only 1-to-2 months of inventory, so I’m starting to think we may be looking at a ‘new normal’ in relation to what a balanced market looks like,” commented Grady.. “With the international economy and trade issues continuing to be erratic, and interest rates staying low, these pressures will almost certainly be an influence, yet there’s no clear answer to how all of this will play out,” he added.

MLS figures show 2.01 months of inventory system-wide, with 12 of the counties reporting less than 2.5 months of supply. Real estate experts tend to use 4-to-6 months of inventory as an indicator of a balanced market.

Northwest MLS director Frank Leach, broker/owner of RE/MAX Platinum Services in Silverdale, said Kitsap County continues to have constrained inventory (down almost 25% from a year ago), with values stabilizing or increasing slightly. Homes priced around $350,000 and under sell quickly, while “inventory in upper ranges is taking a little longer to get traction and move to a sale,” according to Leach.

MLS figures show the median price of homes and condos that sold in Kitsap County last month was $384,000, up nearly 8.2% from the year-ago figure of $355,000.

Leach noted condominium inventory in Kitsap County rose more than 27% from a year ago, but the selection of single family homes dropped by the same percentage. He said several multifamily projects in the county have been submitted or approved, and those homes are expected to be absorbed in the market as soon as they’re available.

“Prices along the I-5 corridor between the Puget Sound and Portland once again outperformed as buyers seek value for money and job growth has expanded in the entire region,” observed James Young, director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research (WCRER) at the University of Washington.

If millennials want to own houses, Young said the logical first step in the housing ladder is increasingly outside of King and Snohomish counties “and further afield along the I-5 corridor.” With interest rates near historic lows and employment levels at historic highs, first-time homebuyers are acting while they can to get on the housing ladder, “even though that may mean long commutes,” Young stated.

The September report from Northwest MLS shows single family activity outperforming condos. Year-over-year pending sales of single family homes jumped 11%, while condo sales were flat. Prices on last month’s closed sales of single family homes rose more than 5.5%, but condo prices declined by 1.2%.